2008-Jun-24 22:47 UTC
The Iranian Threat
In the last week or so we have seen escalation in rhetoric and posturing geared towards an Iranian conflict. Most impressive was Israel's military exercises about a week ago, described by most media as "Israel flexing her muscles".

Next came the news of EU freezing Iran's assets, a follow-through of threats discussed earlier.

All this saber-rattling despite the fact that the national security estimate, which combines the work of several different US intelligence agencies, said in its Key Judgments section (page 6):

Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.


So why are US and Israel so bent on picking a fight with Iran? US is the number one military force in the world. Israel must rank quite high; known to be sixth country to develop nuclear weapons, with reported hundreds of nuclear warheads (thanks to Mordechai Vanunu) in her arsenal, and the billions in US military aid she receives every year. I can't imagine Iran being any sort of threat to either of these super-powers. Therefore, the need to attack Iran must be something other than its non-existing nuclear program.

Could the real reason why Iran is a target be its recent Oil Bourse? It is a oil trading market of sort, which different oil-producing countries could sell their oil on. Think of it as a stock market for oil. The catch is, the Iranian Oil Bourse allows the oil to be exchanged in different currencies, such as the Euro, Iranian Rial, etc.

The operation of the Iranian Oil Bourse can be seen as a great threat to the already sinking US dollar. As it can be seen, US dollar has been devalued greatly in the past years. The Canadian dollar, within the past five years, has gone from being traded at $0.75 USD to now around $1.00 USD. The Euro within the same five year period has gone from $1.1 USD to $1.57 USD!

Oil prices are going up in the US. One way to look at this rise in oil prices as a fall of US dollar. This drop in US dollar's worth can be attributed to inflation of the US dollar, causing devaluation of it, hence, the diminished purchase power of the US dollar. All of which amounts to higher prices for Americans.

Recall that Saddam Hussein had started accepting Euros for Iraqi oil. Could that have been a factor in the US invasion of Iraq? Could the big powers behind US government feel threatened by this move away from US dollar? What is the incentive for foreign countries to hold US dollar as their reserve currency? Before, when US dollar was backed by gold, the answer was simple. The US dollar actually had value. One could turn in their US treasury notes and exchange them for their worth in gold. Then all that changed. US currency is no longer backed by gold. It is fiat currency. Why would any country want to hold on to the US dollar? Oil! US has managed to keep oil-producing middle eastern countries standardized on US dollar as their exchange currency for their oil. All countries rely on oil, and if they need US dollar to buy oil, they will keep it as their reserve. However, Iraq, and now Iran, started to screw with US stronghold on other countries by offering a means by which oil could be purchased in currencies other than the US greenback. Thus, they became a grave threat to the US dollar.

Here is a great analysis of what the Iranian Oil Bourse means to the US empire. It is a long-ish read, but I really believe it explains things much clearly and puts things in perspective: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse by Krassimir Petrov.
... sidster
Last modified: 2008-Jul-19 20:22 UTC
Note: [2008-Jul-18 03:40 UTC] {sidster}
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